Saturday, June 21, 2008

A Tough Week

Its been a tough week to be an Obama supporter. Rejecting public financing was the right political move but you really have to have the blinders on not to see that it was a broken promise. This isn't the first time the Senator has let me down to be honest. The fact is, Obama's actions don't entirely match his message all the time. We can lie to ourselves and say that Obama's pamphlet over Hillary's healthcare plan wasn't troublesome, but really, it was kind of underhanded. We can tell ourselves that he doesn't attack his opponents, but he really does, he is just very adept at hitting his opponents hard without appearing to attack them.

However, there is one thing that I do know, that Obama's shortcomings don't approach John McCain's or even the Clintons'. The fact is, he is your standard politician, he is just very very very good at it. The point is, as one West Wing episode put it, "In the battle between a President's demons and better angels, for the first time in a long time, we have a fair fight." I look at the globe and I see a horribly unjust war, a foreign policy that does nothing but exacerbate middle east divisions, I see people dying for democracy in Zimbabwe, and I realize that the United States cannot afford not to elect Barack Obama. He will be sweeped into office with an overwhelming mandate. The rest will be left up to his better angels.

Friday, June 20, 2008

Why I am a Democrat

You want to know why I am a Democrat? Watch the Obama meeting with democratic governors today on youtube.

Topics Include:
Investing in infrastructure and transportation
Investing in energy efficiency
Restoring the economy - the housing market
Making higher education available to everyone
Reducing the national debt
many more

If you were to attend a like republican gathering all you would hear is mere ideology and rhetoric.

Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Social Security Reform

For the first time, I'm going to take a stand against an Obama policy prescription. I can't say I'm completely wild about Obama's donut hole approach to saving social security, nor am I completely sold that it will work.

The idea is that everyone will pay the payroll tax on the first $100,000 of income, income dollars earned between $100,000 and $250,000 will not be taxed, and then every dollar earned after $250,000 will be taxed. The payroll tax is currently capped around $100,000 without any donut hole.

The payout is structured so that higher income individuals receive less benefits per marginal dollar payed in. This means that those who make $250,000+ will receive minuscule benefits compared to the rest of the population.

I don't understand exactly why he chose this policy. Raising the payroll tax %1-2 or raising the retirement age 1-2 years would be a much better and simpler idea. I am all about taxing based on the ability-to-pay principle (and very progressively at that), but this is going to look like democrats engaging in class warfare. The kicker is, I'm not sure that its not class warfare. Democrats should be the progressive party, not the when-in-doubt-raise-taxes-on-the-rich party.

The good thing is that I'm confident social security experts in the GAO, the SSA, and congress will not let this actually come to fruition. What I'm more concerned about is the Democratic party image moving forward. Let us seek out innovative policy solutions that betray our creativity and resolve to find effective, efficient and comprehensive answers to tough issues.

Thursday, June 12, 2008

Good News

I am very encouraged by the most recent polls...

US: Obama 47, McCain 41
Michigan: Obama 45, McCain 42
Wisconsin: Obama 50, McCain 37

If Obama manages to keep Wisconsin and Michigan Blue, this is going to be a very tough election for John McCain to win. Given that Iowa is almost certain to go blue, McCain would then have to hold on to Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Ohio. Considering the circumstances in these states, it is very unlikely he will be able to do that. As Obama is only trailing McCain by three in North Carolina of all places, this election is not looking good for McCain and down-ticket republicans.

Monday, June 9, 2008

John McCain is Such a Dick

The more I learn about John McCain the more I find him a despicable human being.

"Ted Sampley, who fought with US Special Forces in Vietnam and is now a leading campaigner for veterans’ rights, said: ‘I have been following John McCain’s career for nearly 20 years. I know him personally. There is something wrong with this guy and let me tell you what it is – deceit."

Georgia On My Mind...

Leave it to Georgia to come up with the idiot that said this.

Saturday, June 7, 2008

Sorry Bill

Random Thought: I remember Corretta Scott King's funeral when both Clintons spoke. At that point, Bill completely overshadowed his wife and it was thought that this would be the biggest threat the President posed to Hillary's campaign.

Fast forward to today as Hillary is poised to concede the primary to Barack Obama in front of 10,000 people, enjoying complete and total news coverage while Bill Clinton's reputation has been devastated by his own racist innuendos and uncontrollable rage. Now Hillary is the groundbreaking figure and Bill is an angry old lurch. Fact is, Hillary Clinton is the torchbearer of the Clinton brand now.

Congratulations Hillary.

Thursday, June 5, 2008

Back to the Point...

After three straight Obamamania posts lets get back to the stuff that really matters...namely, that John McCain is a cantankerous, petulant, ignorant, arrogant ass-clown...and I say that with all due respect to the honorable senator. I'm already sick of his "I'm John McCain...I am moral and honorable and upright and can't possibly be wrong so fuck you and everyone else" attitude.

Remember John McCain's reaction to Obama's criticism on the GI Bill? He responded to Obama by politely pointing out that Obama had never served in the military so he couldn't lecture McCain on something he knew nothing about, as if honoring our troops and rewarding them for their service is something only reserved for veterans.

As for his proposal of vetoing every bill that has pork in it...well that policy justs proves how dumbshit ignorant he really is. In 2006, $29 billion of federal spending was designated as pork barrel spending by Citizens Against Government Waste. The federal budget in 2006 was $2.7 trillion . The deficit in 2006 was $500 billion. You are so fucking dumb! Pork barrel spending accounts for 1% of federal spending and 5% of the deficit. That is your best idea to balance the budget? Dude, you suck.

I have a better one...We spent almost four times as much on the war in Iraq ($101 billion in 2006). End it.

Even worse is the fact that John McCain obviously has no fucking clue what pork barrel spending really is. Pork barrel spending occurs when lawmakers seek government contracts, grants, military bases, etc. for their districts. The fact is, our nation contracts out thousands of services every year. Unless John McCain wants to socialize every industry that interacts with government at all, pork barrel spending is the only means of divvying out government money. Otherwise, how else are we going to decide who gets the next critical intelligience analysis software contract, how are we going to decide who gets the next military base? If you didn't distrust bureaucracies so much, they could play a larger role, but your such an ignoramus that even that wouldn't meet your standards.

Worst, John McCain, you are the most disingenuous politician this side of Mitt Romney that has ever ran for the Presidency, despite your claim to the straight shooter label. Face it, all you care about is the war. You don't give a shit about every other issues that you talk about. You deify the private sector and preach a modern day laissez-faire economics, but you don't understand a lick of economic theory. I mean this guy literally said the following in a debate when asked about his understanding of the economy..."obviously we have to do something about the subprime...the, uh, subprime....the subprime...uhhh....the housing problem." Your so retarded about the economy you don't even know what to call the current downturn. You criticize Obama for adherence to failed ideas, but your health care plan is the most tried and tested policy between you two and guess what: in every instance, in every way, and according to every scholar this side of the Hoover Institute your ideas are miserable failures.

You speak about appointing strict constructionist judges in the mold of Roberts and Alito, code for appointing judges that appeal to the religious right. But the fact is, John McCain, you once called the leaders of the religious right agents of intolerance. All you care about is power, all you care about is the war. All you UNDERSTAND is the war.

Did you watch his speech on Tuesday night? I did. It was a a long stream of insults and attacks on Barack Obama. There was not a single mention of what John McCain stood for and policies John McCain will implement. I mean seriously, do you think John McCain has ever had an idea? Do you think John McCain would ever turn to his advisors and say, I know what you all say, but I think your wrong, this is why and this is what we are going to do. Do you think John McCain even understands future medicare and social security insolvencies? The answer to all these questions is a resounding no.

Of course, all of this was said with all due respect to an American Hero, whom all Democrats truly respect...we just wish you weren't such a dick.

Wednesday, June 4, 2008

Thanks...Kinda

Obamas Watching Clinton's Speech


I would like to say that Hillary Clinton is a dedicated public servant and is worthy of our respect ...and I'm sure every Obama supporter will agree with that until she endorses Obama on Saturday, publicly. However, inside our little Obama-heads, we're thinking - fuck you a little bit for that speech the other night. I understand she was speaking to her supporters, but that doesn't excuse her classless performance.

It would be one thing if this were a first, but I remember South Carolina, the Potomac Primary, Wisconsin, and other contests where Hillary didn't acknowledge Obama's victory and sometimes neglecting to mention that an election even took place.

...Thats why you will not be Vice President.

Tuesday, June 3, 2008

Since Obama is About to be President...

...I hope that microsoft word software stops automatically changing his name to Osama.

The History of an Obama Supporter

I remember the exact moment I fell for Obama, figuratively speaking. It was the day after his convention speech. I remember I cut off the convention coverage early for an evening with my lady du jour. After she left my condo later that night, I turned the tv back on and all the pundits were speaking about this speech by a guy by the name of Barack Obama. The next day I watched the speech on the internet and I was hooked. You see, even though I profess an adherence to policy, numbers, and verifiable data, I'm a romanticist at heart. I have always been a sucker for the power of words (I mean c'mon, History and English student) and oration. I confess I have spent hours in my room watching speeches by my heroes, Martin Luther King, Jr., John Fitzgerald Kennedy, and yes even fictional president Jeb Bartlett of the West Wing. I have studied speeches by Lincoln, William Jennings Bryan, Teddy Roosevelt, and Adolf Hitler.

Words are weapons, a cliche yes, but perhaps even it betrays the true power of words when spoken or written elegantly and passionately. "Mr. Gorbachav tear down this wall!" "...Free at last! Free at last! Thank God Almighty, We are Free at last!" "Ask not what this country can do for you, but what you can do for your country." "I am in earnest, I will not equivocate, I will not excuse, I will not retreat a single inch, AND I WILL BE HEARD" And perhaps my favorite, "
It is rather for us here to be dedicated to the great task remaining before us -- that from these honored dead we take increased devotion to that cause for which they gave the last full measure of devotion -- that we here highly resolve that these dead shall not have died in vain -- that this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom -- and that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth" I firmly believe that there is nothing that mankind cannot accomplish when it is inspired to achieve by a charismatic leader, whether it be ending slavery, putting a man on the moon, achieving civil rights, ending the cold war, or, yes, even the extermination of over ten million Jews and other European minorities. Words have the power to inspire to both beautiful and terrible ends.

So after I watched Obama's convention speech (four or five times) I had found my man. For the next two years my conscious mind tried to speak truth to my subconscious whispers of desire that Obama would throw his name into the ring for 2008. My desires would whisper : "he's ready, he can do it." But it would get shouted down by my realism: "He is too young, he is too inexperienced." Nevertheless I woke up one November (I am pretty sure) 2006 morning and opened up cnn.com and saw that Obama was weighing a decision to run. Two months later he declared. I remember that day I went to my parents old house for dinner and I showed them the 2004 convention speech.

The next 12 months were agony, after an incredible declaration of his candidacy, Obama proved to be a relatively ineffective candidate. He was raising record amounts of cash, but he was performing very poorly in debates and in the polls. He was portrayed as a wimp, too nice to be president. His message of a new, positive, hopeful politics, was not resonating with the public. Furthermore, he was so sold on being positive that he refused to criticize his opponents. Thats a good strategy when you are winning but not when your down by a nearly insurmountable 25 points in the polls. Even still, I loved that he was so committed to his message that he wouldn't go negative despite the fact that it would probably lead to his demise. I would have been proud to go down with him.

Fast forward through a euphoric Jan. 3rd evening when we celebrated his Iowa victory over champagne, through a dismal Jan. 7th when it appeared Hillary Clinton had regained her inevitability, a fiercely cathartic Jan. 24th, when, after a week of insulting attacks by Hillary and Bill filled me with rage, Obama delivered such a brilliant speech that a friend I were literally jumping up and down with excitement in my apartment as if Georgia had just won the national championship, and through 50 other contests which wrought agony, despair, elation, and a million other emotions upon my soul to this night. This night is a rare one. This is a night where I can say my guy won. Believe it or not, being a Dean supporter in 04 and being from a conservative district in a conservative state, that is the first time I have ever been able to say that. Hopefully I will be able to say that again November 4, 2008 when hopefully words will once again triumph, this time over fear and folly.

Sunday, June 1, 2008

What He Said

I was going to publish a more expletive laden version, but Kos beat me to it - so I'll just let him speak for me.

Also, The New York Times continues to emphasize the GI Bill.

Saturday, May 31, 2008

Green Mortgages

I am working on an interesting project this summer at HUD dealing with green mortgages. A green mortgage is essentially a new mortgage underwriting technique which a borrower can qualify for if the house is energy efficient, healthy, and durable.

Green mortgages require a larger initial investment and a larger loan (up to 15%). This investment will finance green improvements to an existing home or finance the additional costs of building a new home to green standards. However, over the life of a mortgage (15-30 years) the savings from energy and health costs will be substantially more than the increase in your PITI, thus yielding returns that could reach tens of thousands of dollars. Furthermore, since the initial improvement was financed by your mortgage, the returns of your investment are felt immediately as you will be paying less energy+PITI.

Green houses can cut energy costs by up to 50%. It is unknown how much health costs will be reduced by improved air quality.

By factoring in these savings into mortgage underwriting formulas, borrowers can qualify for larger loans. On a macro level, this means that more people can qualify for home loans, the marginal borrower is going to need less total income, and that access to homeownership will improve.

Because mortgage default is so costly to the lender, underwriters must allow a good deal of type II error (false negatives) to make up for the risk of a type I error (false positive - so basically banks deny a lot of applications that would have turned out to be solid investments to overcompensate for the uncertainty of risk). By factoring in energy and health savings into mortgage underwriting, underwriters get a more accurate estimate of a borrowers risk of default and are thus more confident in their assessment. Improved confidence in risk assessment means that more loans will be accepted at the margin, which will primarily benefit low-income households and underserved populations.

Lastly, mainstreaming green mortgages could be useful in the housing climate today. By allowing more people to take out loans, this will shift the demand for housing upwards, driving up price and quantity. By investing in the quality of our homes, houses will be worth more, further driving up price and allowing households to build more home equity.

Notice I haven't made an environmental argument? Thats because it is a good policy even without the added bonus of saving the planet.

So basically Green Mortgages are fucking cool as shit. They literally have zero down-side. Good for lenders, borrowers, good for the economy.

Friday, May 30, 2008

GI Bill Passes

The GI Bill passed the Senate by an overwhelming margin, 75-22.

Monday, May 26, 2008

Happy Memorial Day

Happy Memorial Day to everyone. I hope you ate as well as I did: smoked ribs...so good.

I was happy to see the media focus on the GI Bill today, given its relevance to the holiday. Hopefully we will see much more coverage in the days and weeks to come.

I find the conservative argument against the bill curious. They say it will deplete our forces, but I know I would be more willing to sign up if I knew the government was going to set me up with home loans and college tuition after I serve. After all, our problem isn't with retaining troops, it is with recruiting soldiers during two wars that have no end in the immediate future and a potential future war with Iran. Silly Republicans.

Update: The New York Times agrees.

Sunday, May 25, 2008

Obama's Commencement Speech



I thought Obama's commencement speech today provided a better insight into his vision for America than the typical stump speech or victory speech.

Saturday, May 24, 2008

My First Post Ever - GI Bill

Welcome to The Arse's first blog entry ever. Having landed an internship in Greensboro with the US Department of Housing and Urban Development (which I am completely stoked about), I find myself living with my parents for the first time in 5 or 6 years and will thus be consumed with boredom and the overwhelming desire to speak about politics, policy and economics on higher plane than anyone here in Greensboro can offer. Just last night, having forgotten that I was no longer surrounded by graduate students, I politely corrected a young lady about a misconception surrounding the housing crisis espoused by many conservative opponents to any sort of housing bailout. I explained to her that, actually, individuals in low-income neighborhoods are much more likely to be adversely effected by the housing crisis because they are more likely to have poor credit and take out subprime loans on properties that are not likely to appreciate. Therefore, they are stuck making payments in excess of their property value as their interest outstrips their property appreciation. Instead of debating the merits of my points, she looked at me funny and walked away. That was the point when I realized I needed to start a blog to vent my nerdy pursuit of policy and not heap it on poor unsuspecting drunk people in Greensboro, North Carolina that make misinformed comments.

So anyway, on to my first meaningful topic: the new GI Bill proposed by Sen. Jim Webb is a subject that should garner much more press than it does (If any of the readers of this entry were in Social Insurance with me, then you will realize I am stealing most of this from the mouth of Dr. Wenger, but I'm cool with that). The previous GI Bill was passed in the wake of WWII in order to provide a leg up to war veterans. Benefits of the GI Bill included increased access to home loans and business loans and paid for college tuition. However, this bill primarily benefited white veterans as minorities still faced barriers to college education and housing discrimination legislation was not passed until 1968 (Housing Discrimination) and 1976 (Community Reinvestment).
The primary difference between Sen. Webb's bill and the previous GI Bill is that the American armed service today is a volunteer force. Minorities and the poor are disproportionately represented in today's force, whereas the force in WWII was overwhelmingly white and of all economic backgrounds. Therefore, the new GI Bill would have the opposite effect of benefiting minorities and the disadvantaged.
Senator John McCain and President Bush are opposed to Senator Webb's bill. They argue that this would drastically deplete America's fighting force as soldiers would leave the service to take advantage of their benefits.
Senator Obama, who supports the bill, and Senator McCain have recently traded very charged comments concerning this bill, briefly bringing the national spotlight to the bill before Senator Clinton's assassination remarks consumed the political media. Needless to say, I am looking forward to this debate over the coming months. Firstly, because I honor our veterans and I am very anxious to reward them for their service. But also, I look forward to Senator Obama and Democratic candidates for the House and Senate nationwide arguing on behalf of our troops while Senator McCain and other doomed Republican candidates oppose it.